“The end of 2025 sends a clear signal: the ‘thermometer’ of expectations has moved in a more positive direction,” notes researchers at Universidad San Sebastián. “The anticipation of economic cycles is rarely observed first in large macroeconomic aggregates. Turning points usually manifest themselves earlier in concrete decisions,” adds Gabriela Salvador of Vantrust.
HOUSING SALES UP 30%
“For 2026, we project a sustained recovery in housing demand, bolstered by the dividend subsidy,” stated the Chilean Chamber of Construction (CChC) a couple of weeks ago. According to the association’s latest Macroeconomics and Construction report, housing sales are expected to rise by 30%.
They also estimate that the available stock will decrease and the sales velocity will increase with improved access to credit for construction and real estate companies.
All of this is leveraged—according to the Public Policy Center of the USS School of Economics—by the interest rate subsidy for mortgage loans for new homes up to 4,000 UF (Unidades de Fomento, a Chilean unit of account) and signs of significant use of the program, which helps to unlock sales, reduce inventory, and gradually reactivate new construction projects.
“The banking sector’s perception of demand for new mortgage loans is leaving behind the weakest periods and suggests a more positive outlook for mortgage lending going forward,” it emphasizes.
GREATER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN FIVE YEARS
86% of consumers believe that 2026 will be a better year, the highest level since 2021. This is according to the latest “2026 Predictions” report by the consulting firm Ipsos. This figure is 7 points higher than in 2024 and 15 points above the average of the 30 nations measured in the report.
Furthermore, 67% estimated that the global economy would be stronger this year, the highest figure since 2018.
“The results reflect an unusual optimism among Chilean citizens,” noted Nicolás Fritis, country manager of Ipsos Chile. Although the fieldwork was conducted before the first round of the presidential election, “the prevailing winds of change have people hopeful that 2026 will be a better year for them personally, and that a persistent majority feeling that the last few years have been bad can be reversed.”
IMPROVED CAR SALES, BUT FAR FROM RECORDS
As of November, car sales rose 2.4%, to 281,021 units. “This result consolidates a trajectory of moderate but sustained growth,” stated the Chilean National Automotive Association.
“An automotive growth year is anticipated, driven by consumption indicators, especially for durable goods, and by the recovery in business confidence and investment indices, which also translates into a need for vehicles to transport cargo and passengers,” says ANAC Secretary General Diego Mendoza. While it is still too early to project results, he acknowledges that they will evolve upwards, although still far from the record of more than 415,000 cars sold in 2021 and 2022.
“When a person decides to buy a car, commit to a home, or take out a loan, they don’t do so by looking at the month’s figures, but rather by evaluating whether their job situation is stable and whether the future seems reasonably predictable,” adds Gabriela Salvador, director of Vantrust.
Mendoza anticipates that a key factor will be the exchange rate. Chile imports vehicles from 28 different manufacturing origins, with the dollar being relevant, but also the yuan and the euro. In addition to better credit conditions, more than 80% of vehicles are sold with financing.
BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS ON THE RISE
The Central Bank’s latest Business Perception Report was published in November. It revealed that companies’ expectations regarding their future performance were improving “significantly.” “In general, sales increases and a stabilization of costs are expected over the next few months, although some concerns regarding labor costs persist,” the report added.
Furthermore, they anticipated moderate increases in sales prices and a continued recovery in margins.
While in October 2024, 36% estimated they would make investments in the coming year, that figure has now risen to 43%. And 71% indicate that it is certain or very certain they will make those investments. Twelve months ago, the percentage was 60%.
Business expectations regarding the finances of construction companies are in optimistic territory for the first time since 2021, according to the USS (Union of Construction Companies).
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT UP 6.4%
“Construction in 2026 could mark a turning point because two previously weak sectors are now showing a more favorable shift: public works/infrastructure and housing,” notes the Center for Public Policy at the USS School of Economics.
The September update of the CBC Cadastre shows that investment in this sector has increased by 2.4%.
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